A POSTMORTEM ON THE PREDICTIONS - CRITERIA, COMPLAINTS, AND COMPLIMENTS

Rational choice, or expected utility models have garnered considerable skepticism in many quarters in recent years. Much of that skepticism is deserved. However, the model on which the forecasts in this collect ion are based is different from many of its competitors in ways which address quite directly the shortcomings that have generated most of th e skepticism. Attempts to apply this model can be evaluated according to several criteria, such as the information provided about the expert s that generate the data, whether or not the actual data on which the forecasts are based are provided to readers, whether those numbers or data conform with fairly straightforward logic, or intuitive ideas abo ut the political events being analyzed, whether the issue being analyz ed is truly one dimensional, and how specific, as well as how controve rsial, or counterintuitive the forecasts are. The forecasts here are i ntriguing, intelligent, and conscientious attempts to demonstrate the virtues of a forecasting model that has produced a rather lengthy reco rd of success in both public policy-oriented arenas, as well as the pr ivate sector. It is to be hoped that in the not-too-distant future, th ese attempts will appear rather crude and preliminary. Even if this oc curs, the pioneering nature of these efforts should not be overlooked.