POPULATION-DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT - AGE-SPECIFIC POPULATION-GROWTH RATES AND ECONOMIC-GROWTH IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES, 1965 TO 1990

Rapid population growth is often blamed for economic stagnation in les s developed countries. Theoretically, rapid population growth forces s carce capital to be spent on nonproductive segments of the population (e.g., children) and encourages undercapitalization of the economy und eremployment, low wages, and anemic market demand. Alternative views r egard rapid labor force growth as economically beneficial. In this cro ss-national investigation of the economic growth rates of 75 developin g countries, we regress the annual average percentage change in real g ross domestic product per capita from 1965 to 1990 on demographic mode ls that incorporate either total population growth rates and labor for ce growth rates or age-specific population growth rates. We find that an increase in the child population hinders economic progress, while a n increase in the adult population fosters economic development. We po sit a demographic windfall effect whereby the demographic transition a llows a massive, one-rime boost in economic development as rapid labor force growth occurs in the absence of burgeoning youth dependency. We also speculate on a demographic ratchet effect whereby economies lie fallow during ''baby booms,'' but grow rapidly as ''boomers'' age and take up their economic roles in society.