Cj. Doyle et al., EFFECTIVENESS OF FARM POLICIES ON SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL-AREAS, European review of agricultural economics, 24(3-4), 1997, pp. 530-546
A methodology for estimating the impact of agricultural support paymen
ts on both farm output and the wider economy at regional level is outl
ined and applied to one Scottish region. Using a Johansen-type model o
f the agriculture sector, the impact of support changes on agricultura
l output is forecast. A regional input-output matrix is derived and us
ed to calculate income and employment multipliers for the main agricul
tural enterprises. Using these multipliers, forecasts of regional inco
me and employment losses due to a partial reduction in agricultural su
pport are made. Within the region, the spatial distribution of benefit
s is projected using a Gravity Model and mapped using a Geographic Inf
ormation System.