CARDIOVASCULAR RISK-FACTORS AND 18-MONTH MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY IN AN ELDERLY CHINESE POPULATION AGED 70 YEARS AND OVER

Objective: To determine the influence of some cardiovascular risk fact ors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking habit, physical activity , obesity, adverse lipid profile) in elderly Chinese aged 70 years and over, on overall mortality and morbidity from stroke and ischaemic he art disease. Design: Longitudinal study relating 18-month outcome to b aseline values. Subjects: 2,032 subjects (999 men, 1,033 women), mean age 80 years, recruited by random sampling of the Old Age and Disabili ty Allowance Schemes, which covers 90% of the Hong Kong elderly subjec ts, stratified by sex and 5-year age groups from 70 years onwards. Met hods: At baseline, subjects were visited by interviewers to collect in formation regarding medical conditions, smoking habit, physical activi ty, and to measure their height, weight, skinfold thickness, and waist /hip ratio. A follow-up survey was carried out 18 months later to esta blish the development of any new stroke or ischaemic heart disease, an d to note any deaths and the cause of such deaths from death certifica tion. Results: In multivariate analysis overall mortality was negative ly associated with body mass index and participation in physical activ ity, after adjusting for age and sex. Death from stroke was associated with a higher systolic blood pressure at baseline. Among survivors, t he only significant associations observed were a negative association between body mass index and the development of heart disease, and a po sitive association between systolic blood pressure and development of stroke. Conclusions: Few associations between cardiovascular risk fact ors and morbidity and mortality were demonstrated in elderly Chinese w ith a mean age of 80 years. The only modifiable risk factor appears to be systolic blood pressure.