INTRA-SEASONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF MADAGASCAR - PART 2 - EVOLUTIONOF FLOOD EVENTS

The meteorological structure of flood-producing weather systems affect ing northern Madagascar is examined using ECMWF data. Daily rainfall i n the austral summer is used to select 16 cases for a composite analys is of flood events in the period 1987-1992. Anomaly maps demonstrate a pair of convective vortices over SE Africa and the SW Indian Ocean wh ich converge over northern Madagascar. Thermodynamic variables indicat e an eastward shift of unstable moist conditions from SE Africa. A sur ge of monsoon northwesterlies and upper tropical easterlies are key fe atures of flood producing systems over NW Madagascar.