RELIABILITY-ANALYSIS IN SUPPORT OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HYDROELECTRIC GENERATING STATIONS

In work sponsored by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USAGE), Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), Richland, Wash., has performed a frequenc y analysis regarding the nonroutine closure of water flow through the turbines of powerhouses along the Columbia and Snake Rivers. The analy sis involved developing a frequency analysis model capable of producin g frequency profiles of overspeed and flooding events as a function of time and the associated component importance rankings. Data regarding hydropower equipment failures from a previous study were used to esti mate component failure rates within the model. The present paper summa rizes the model development and quantification, and calculation of com ponent importance measures. The results of this analysis can be used a s input to further analyses to evaluate economic consequences of overs peed and flooding events and to provide policy recommendations for ope rations of hydroelectric generating stations.