ERRONEOUS PERCEPTIONS IN GENERATING RANDOM SEQUENCES - IDENTIFICATIONAND STRENGTH OF A BASIC MISCONCEPTION IN GAMBLING BEHAVIOR

Individuals have difficulty recognizing and generating random sequence s. This study identified misconceptions held by individuals while gene rating sequences of random binary events. It was hypothesized that err oneous perceptions would be dominant in probability judgment. Results showed that individuals verbalized mon erroneous than accurate percept ions. A fine-grained analysis of participants' verbal statements revea led that the basic cognitive error lay in their inability to consider each event as independent. Behavioral measures confirmed the presence and strength of this crucial misconception. The theoretical and practi cal implications of these results are discussed in order to improve ou r understanding of gambling behavior.