VARICOSE-VEIN CLINICS - MODELING THE EFFECTS OF SEASONAL-VARIATION INREFERRALS

Data have been collected prospectively on patients referred to a speci alist varicose vein clinic between January 1991 and December 1994. A s easonal variation in referral pattern of patients is demonstrated, wit h more patients being referred in the summer months. Similar fluctuati ons are seen in the number of patients waiting for first appointment, and the average waiting time for first appointment. Such fluctuations in referral patterns can lead to difficulties in planning. A computer model has been constructed and used to predict future referrals and th e effects of seasonal variations upon waiting times for appointments a nd on efficiency of clinic usage. The computer model accurately predic ts numbers of future referrals. The average waiting time for first app ointment could be kept constant by arranging more varicose vein clinic s in summer than in winter but keeping the overall number of clinics d uring the year constant. The computer model could be important in plan ning of specialist clinics, and may plap a role when negotiating futur e contracts. If flexibility can be achieved by exchanging clinics with different seasonal patterns, it may be possible to reduce waiting tim es within existing resources.