CLIMATE-CHANGE, THERMAL-STRESS AND MORTALITY CHANGES

One of the potential effects of an anthropogenically induced climate c hange is a change in mortality related to thermal stress;In this paper , existing literature on the relationship between average temperatures and mortality is evaluated. By means of a simple meta-analysis an agg regated effect of a change in temperature on mortality is estimated fo r total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. These effect estima tes are combined with projections of changes in baseline climate condi tions of 20 cities, according to climate change scenarios of three Gen eral Circulation Models (GCMs). The results indicate that for most of the cities included, global climate change is likely to lead to a redu ction in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality. This effe ct is most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in elderly people i n cities which experience temperate or cold climates at present. The s ensitivity of the results to physiological and socio-economical adapta tion is examined. However, more research is necessary to extend this w ork by inclusion of data from a wider range of populations. (C) 1997 P ublished by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.