POLICIES TO REDUCE ENERGY USE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSIONS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR - A CASE OF DELHI CITY

This paper aims to analyze factors influencing energy consumption patt ern and emission levels in the transport sector of Delhi, and extrapol ates total energy demand and the vehicular emissions, using a computer -based software called 'Long Range Energy Alternative Planning' (LEAP) and the associated 'Environmental Database (EDB)', The study is restr icted to passenger modes of transport in Delhi and does not include th e freight modes, Travel demand is first estimated by analyzing data on vehicle population, average distance travelled, and occupancy level, Next, data on travel demand, proportion of travel demand catered by ro ad and rail, modal split, occupancy and fuel efficiency are compiled w ithin the LEAP framework, in order to estimate the energy demand in De lhi, In addition, emission factors are compiled under EDB module of th e LEAP structure to estimate the resultant pollution loading, The LEAP model is run under five alternative scenarios to estimate the current consumption of gasoline and diesel oil in Delhi and forecast the same for the years 1994/1995, 2000/2001, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010, respecti vely, Under each scenario, the model also estimates emissions of CO, H C, NOx, SO2, Pb and TSP. The total emissions are translated into conce ntration levels attributable to the passenger transport to get an indi cation of air quality in Delhi, This is accomplished by the use of pro portional air quality model, Finally, scenario results are analyzed to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that will reduce the growth of fuel demand and emissions, The prime object ive is to arrive at an optimal transport policy that limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution. (C) 1997 Elsevie r Science Ltd. All rights reserved.