B. Bollabas et A. Stacey, APPROXIMATE UPPER-BOUNDS FOR THE CRITICAL PROBABILITY OF ORIENTED PERCOLATION IN 2 DIMENSIONS BASED ON RAPIDLY MIXING MARKOV-CHAINS, Journal of Applied Probability, 34(4), 1997, pp. 859-867
We develop a technique for establishing statistical tests with precise
confidence levels for upper bounds on the critical probability in ori
ented percolation. We use it to give p(c) < 0.647 with a 99.999967% co
nfidence. As Monte Carlo simulations suggest that p(c) approximate to
0.6445, this bound is fairly tight.