STATISTICAL SHORT-TERM FORECASTING TECHNIQUE FOR WIND AND TEMPERATUREIN A COASTAL TROPICAL LOCATION (TOWNSVILLE)

An objective statistical technique for short-term wind and temperature prediction is developed using linear regression techniques, Potential predictors with immediate relevance to the sea-breeze circulation wer e emphasised as an integral part of the meteorology of the predictand, Potential predictors were empirically combined to partially account f or non-linear relationships. A 31-day operational trial compares the s tatistical model to manual forecasts, climatology and persistence, It is established that the temperature and wind direction predictions hav e similar skill to those produced manually by forecasters, The statist ical model displayed superior skill over other methods for wind speed prediction. Specifically, for a compilation of three to nine hours, st atistical model forecasts for observed winds of greater than 10 kn (5. 2 m/s), root mean square errors for wind direction and speed of 20 deg rees and 2.2 kn were achieved respectively.