CONFLICT-ANALYSIS FOR PREDICTION OF FATAL CRASH LOCATIONS IN MIXED TRAFFIC STREAMS

This paper reports the results of a study that explored the relationsh ip between fatal crashes and conflict rates at mid-block on 14 locatio ns in Delhi, India. All locations had a mix of motorized and non-motor ized traffic. The sites were selected to represent low, medium and hig h fatality rates. The analysis was done in two stages. The first stage used recent 3-year statistics along the entire street. The second sta ge focused on each fatal crash for mid-block segments on those streets . Peak-hour traffic at 14 selected locations was videotaped. Trained o bservers recorded traffic compositions at mid-block, average space mea n speeds by mode and conflicts by type, reactor mode and cause mode. A fter converting raw conflict counts to rates, site ranking went from h igh to low conflict rate sites. The studies showed a weak crash-confli ct association. Conflict data for various sites were compared for diff erent combinations of conflicts. The comparison revealed that the pres ence of only a few non-motorized modes is enough to cause conflicts be tween motorized vehicles and on-road non-motorized vehicles. The study did not provide a conclusive relationship between mid-block conflicts and fatal crash sites. However, the conflict study provided useful in sights into the interaction between different traffic entities in the traffic streams of 14 sites. An important conclusion of this study is that a traffic-planning emphasis on studying conflict rates may not re sult in reducing fatality rates on urban roads along mid-block segment s. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.