Em. Badley et Pp. Wang, ARTHRITIS AND THE AGING POPULATION - PROJECTIONS OF ARTHRITIS PREVALENCE IN CANADA 1991 TO 2031, Journal of rheumatology, 25(1), 1998, pp. 138-144
Objective. To develop Canadian projections for the prevalence and numb
ers of people with arthritis and arthritis disability, overall and in
major age groups. Methods. Age and sex specific data from the 1991 Gen
eral Social Survey and the 1994 National Population Health Survey on t
he prevalence of arthritis and arthritis disability were applied to po
pulation projections for Canada for every 5 years between 1991 and 203
1. Results, Between 1991 and 2031 we project that the prevalence of ar
thritis diagnosed by a health professional as a longterm condition in
Canada will increase from 10.7 to 15.7%, an increase of 46.7%, and the
number of people with arthritis will increase from 2.9 to 6.5 million
, an increase of 124%. Comparable changes in prevalence and numbers of
people with self-reported arthritis are 17.1% (4.7 million) to 23.6%
(9.7 million). Most of the increase will be in the population aged 45, and not until after 2020 will the comparative increase in the 65+ ag
e group be greater than that for the 45-64 age group. Disability attri
buted to arthritis in the population aged 15+ is projected to increase
from a prevalence of 2.3% (595,000) in 1991 to 3.3% (1.13 million) in
2031. Conclusion. There are large projected increases in both the pre
valence and numbers of people with arthritis and arthritis related dis
ability that, at least in the next 20 years, will be split between the
older half of the working population and those aged 65 and older.