COLD-WAR IMPERATIVES AND QUARRELSOME CLIENTS - MODELING US AND USSR ARMS TRANSFERS TO INDIA AND PAKISTAN

This study extends a formal systems model on the political and strateg ic consequences of great power arms transfers. Using the United States and the Soviet Union as the exporters for patrons) and Pakistan and I ndia as the importers (clients), tests of the model's components revea l the following: the superpowers were indifferent to the effects of th eir arms supplies on the relationships between the importers, changes over time in the importers' arms acquisitions from third countries dep ended on the relationships between the importers and on the record of superpower supplies, subsequent superpower transfers were influenced n ot by the consequences of past transfers but by the political relation ships between the exporters and importers and by the arms trade behavi or of the importers, and each importer would be penalized by its arms transfer patron with decreased future supplies for excessive third-cou ntry arms shipments and for receiving arms from the opposing superpowe r.