A SINGLE-SAMPLE ESTIMATE OF SHRINKAGE IN METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING

An estimator of shrinkage based on information contained in a single s ample is presented and the results of a simulation study are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative predictors, and l east (sum of) absolute deviations and least (sum of) squared deviation s regression models are examined on the estimator. A single-sample est imator of shrinkage based on drop-one cross-validation is shown to be highly accurate under a wide variety of research conditions.