ASSESSING EFFECTS OF MITIGATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE WITH AN INTERTEMPORAL MODEL OF THE US FOREST AND AGRICULTURE SECTORS

A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural se ctors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a ''least social cost'' fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land us e changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; l and use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implement ation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashio n over time may not be optimal; land use changes account for the large st part of adjustments to meet policy targets; and forest management c hanges involve higher intensity and less forest type conversion.