A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE CONNECTION BETWEEN FEMALE LABOR-FORCE PARTICIPATION AND DIVORCE IN CANADA, 1931-1991

This study investigates the causal order between women's employment an d divorce in Canada 1931-1991. An econometric model-the Granger-Hsiao test-is applied to time series data to identify the form and direction of the relationship between these two events and predict their patter n of change over time. Autoregressive estimates show that increased en try of women into the work force was a causal factor in the rise in di vorce rates from 1931-1969; after 1969 the direction of causality swit ched. Relative risk estimates obtained from individual-level survey da ta using Cox's proportional hazard models confirm the time series resu lts but, in addition, show that labour force participation was a signi ficant predictor of the risk of marital dissolution only among women w ho married between 1950 and 1969 and who worked without interruption. Logistic regression results show that compared to women who did not ex perience marital disruption, divorced and separated women had higher o dds of being employed while those who remarried were less likely to be employed. This study thus demonstrates that the causal connection bet ween these two events have changed over time among Canadian women, and that analyses at different levels of data measurement can be used to support, refine or refute results obtained at either level.