PROBLEMS WITH THE INTERPRETATION OF MARK-RELEASE-RECAPTURE DATA IN SUBTERRANEAN TERMITES (ISOPTERA, RHINOTERMITIDAE)

The Lincoln index (Peterson method) is frequently used to estimate ani mal population size in mark-release-recapture studies. We tested the a ccuracy of this method to estimate termite colony size using logs infe sted with termites that were maintained in the laboratory, Termites we re fed paper towels dyed either with 0.05% or 0.1% (w/w) of the dye ma rker Nile blue and released into their host logs in the laboratory. Fo llowing recapture a week later, estimates of termite population size w ere approximately 10 times greater than the actual population size for termites dyed with 0.05% Nile blue, and were approximately 3 times gr eater for termites dyed with 0.1% Nile blue. Concentrations of 0.1% Ni le blue are not used in field studies because they result in higher mo rtality than 0.05% in laboratory trials, However, our data suggest tha t greater accuracy may be obtained using the higher dye concentration, The triple-catch method is frequently used in place of the Lincoln in dex in order to reduce standard errors of the estimate. However, our s tandard errors were lower than those of many published studies using t he triple-catch method. The assumptions governing the efficacy of mark -release-recapture may be violated because of potential model biases t hat result from developing marking techniques in the laboratory that a re intended for field use.