F. Seccareccia et al., ROLE OF BODY-MASS INDEX IN THE PREDICTION OF ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY IN OVER 62000 MEN AND WOMEN - THE ITALIAN RIFLE POOLING PROJECT, Journal of epidemiology and community health, 52(1), 1998, pp. 20-26
Study objective-To evaluate the relation of body mass index (BMI) to s
hort-term mortality in a large Italian population sample. Design-Withi
n the Italian RIFLE pooling project, BMI was measured in 47 population
samples made of 32 741 men and 30 305 women aged 20-69 years (young 2
0-44, mature 45-69). Data on mortality were collected for the next six
years. Main outcome measures-Age adjusted death rates in quintile cla
sses of BMI and Cox proportional hazards models with six year all caus
es mortality as end point, BMI as covariate and age, smoking, systolic
blood pressure as possible confounders were computed. Multivariate an
alysis was tested in all subjects and after the exclusion of smokers,
early (first two years) deaths, and both categories. Results-The univa
riate analysis failed to demonstrate in all cases a U or inverse J sha
ped relation. The Cox coefficients for the Linear and quadratic terms
of BMI proved significant for both young and mature women. The minimum
of the curve was located at 27.0 (24.0, 30.0, 95% confidence limits,
CL) and 31.8 (25.5, 38.2, 95% CL) units of BMI, for young and mature w
omen respectively. Similar findings were obtained even when exclusion
were performed. No relation was found for young men while for mature a
dult men only the model for all subjects retained significant curvilin
ear relation (minimum 29.3; 22.4, 36.2, 95% CL). Conclusion-These unco
mmon high values of BMI carrying the minimum risk of death seems to be
in contrast with weight Rome, Italy guidelines. A confirmation of the
se findings in other population groups might induce the consideration
of changes in the suggested healthy values of BMI.