TIMING MEDICAL EXAMINATIONS VIA INTENSITY FUNCTIONS

This paper studies a decision theoretic method for timing medical exam inations. The specific model is motivated by screening asymptomatic in dividuals for hidden disease or risk-increasing conditions. Ideas and strategies may be applied more broadly to problems in which a stochast ic process is monitored over time with a costly and possibly faulty da ta collection procedure. The decision space is modelled as a space of functions, termed screening intensity functions. Results include expli cit rules for deciding whether or not an individual of given age and r isk factors should be screened for a disease, and for deciding when an individual examined today should be examined again. Breast cancer scr eening is used as an illustration.