TIME TRENDS IN HIV-INFECTION AMONG PREGNANT-WOMEN IN EUROPE

Objective: To estimate time trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant wo men delivering livebirths in 14 European countries using a uniform met hodology. Methods: A form of back-projection was used to estimate HIV prevalence among pregnant women based on reported cases of AIDS due to perinatally acquired HIV infection. The method used estimates the rat e of progression to AIDS in children with HIV, and the rate of transmi ssion of HIV from mother to child, derived from published studies. Res ults: The prevalence of HIV among pregnant women delivering livebirths was estimated to be highest in Spain (2.61 per 1000 livebirths in 199 2-1993), relatively high (greater than or equal to 0.3 per 1000 livebi rths) throughout the period 1984-1993 in France, Italy and Switzerland , and low (< 0.2 per 1000 livebirths) in Germany, The Netherlands and Scandinavia. There were large and statistically significant increasing trends in the estimated HIV prevalence among pregnant women in Portug al (an estimated 77% increase per 2-year period), Spain (40% increase) and the United Kingdom (77% increase; all P < 0.001). Statistically s ignificant increasing trends of a smaller magnitude were estimated for France (24% increase) and Italy (23% increase; both P < 0.001). Concl usions: Sharp increases in HIV prevalence among pregnant women were es timated for several European countries, whereas in other countries no trends in the estimated prevalence were detected.