A PREDICTION OF THE PEAK SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR SOLAR-CYCLE-23

We use a precursor technique based on the geomagnetic aa index during the decline (last 30%) of solar cycle 22 to predict a peak sunspot num ber-of 158 (+/-18) for cycle 23, under the assumption that solar minim um occurred in May 1996. This method appears to be as reliable as thos e that require a year of data surrounding the geomagnetic minimum, whi ch typically follows the smoothed sunspot minimum by about six months.