IMPACT OF CLIMATIC-CHANGE IN FORESTS AND NATURAL PROTECTED AREAS OF MEXICO

An assessment was made in order to determine the vulnerability of Mexi co's forest ecosystems to climate change, according to the results of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): CCCM and GFDL-R30. These GCMs w ere made available for the study within the Country Study Program (U.S . Country Studies Program, 1994). Holdridge's life zones classificatio n was used for this analysis. This work displays the climatic differen ces for each model and for different regions of Mexico. Climate scenar ios were compared to current climate so as to notice climate change re gions for each model. The main natural protected areas, as well as the Pones of the country with the most important forest exploitation area s were located in order to assess those that could be affected by clim ate change. Of the 18 life zones reported for the country, the most af fected ones would be the temperate cold and warm forests, tending to d isappear. On the contrary, tropical dry, very dry and thorn forests, w ith warm affinities tend to widen their current surfaces, according to the CCCM model. The GFDL-R30 model foresees increases in the distribu tion of tropical, humid and wet forests, which would be favored by the increase in rainfall, giving place to Tropical Rain Forests, currentl y non-existent in the country. Of the 33 natural protected areas used; for this study, 24 show changes in their life zones, the most affecte d ones are those found in the northern and occidental regions of the c ountry. The most affected forest industries would be those located in the Sierra Madre Occidental, in the states of Durango and Chihuahua, a nd to the occidental part of the country, the industries found in Mich oacan and Jalisco.