SELECTED CHRONIC DISEASE RISK-FACTORS IN MISSOURI - 10-YEAR TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR-2000

Introduction: A study was undertaken to determine the prevalence rates of three chronic disease risk factors among adult Missourians from 19 86 to 1995, to predict rates, and to compare them with national and Mi ssouri's goals for the year 2000. Methods: Using data from Missouri Be havioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Surveys (BRFSS) 1986-1995, pr evalence rates of smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity were calcu lated across age, gender, race, and educational levels. Linear regress ion was used to predict rates for year 2000, for the adults of Missour i as a whole and for particular subgroups. Results: There was a 0.9% a nnual decrease in smoking prevalence and a 4.6% annual increase in obe sity over the 10 years, controlling for age and gender. The trend in r ates of physical inactivity was nonsignificant. Continuation of these rates will give smoking rates of 23.6%, obesity rates of 35.5%, and se dentary rates of 36.3% by the year 2000. Those with less than a high s chool education had higher rates for each of the risk factors. Conclus ions: This rate of decrease in rates of cigarette smoking is not suffi cient to enable the year 2000 goal to be reached until year 2040, and the rates of obesity and sedentary lifestyle are increasing. The BRFSS , which has now been implemented in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, is a useful tool for monitoring progress towards health beha vior targets.