REDUCING THE INCIDENCE OF EPILEPTIC SEIZURES IN THE BELGIAN TERVUREN THROUGH SELECTION

There is growing evidence that idiopathic epilepsy in the Belgian Terv uren has a genetic foundation. Reducing the incidence of this disorder , which may afflict as much as 17% of the breed, will rely upon the wi se selection of parents. Seizure data on 997 dogs from the American Be lgian Tervuren Club were collected through questionnaires in which ani mals were classified into one of four mutually exclusive categories: 1 ) no seizures observed, 2) one seizure observed, 3) two to five seizur es, and 4) more than five seizures. The analysis of this ordered data made use of a threshold model of Bayesian inference. Integration of po sterior densities was accomplished through Gibbs sampling. Through thi s analysis we are able to predict that the offspring of the mating of two non-epileptic dogs has a probability of 0.99 of never suffering fr om a seizure. The offspring of the mating of two dogs who have each ha d 1 seizure has a predicted probability 0.58 of never suffering from a seizure. Prevention of this disease is best prescribed through the se lection of non-epileptic dogs as parents of future generations. (C) 19 98 Elsevier Science B.V.