EQUAL PROMOTION OPPORTUNITY IN THE UNITED-STATES-NAVY

This article analyzes the outcome of over 75,000 promotion decisions a ffecting middle-grade Naval officers between 1984 and 1993. Theory pre dicts that promotion rates of men should exceed promotion rates of wom en, while promotion rates of Caucasians should exceed promotion rates of minorities. With respect to women, the data analyzed are generally consistent with theory at the higher rank investigated. Promotion-rate differences between men and women also indicate that theory may be mo re valid between 1984 and 1988. With respect to minorities, aggregate data are consistent with theory. However, in the latter years investig ated, promotion-rare differences between Caucasians and minorities are less extreme and promotion rates of African Americans and Hispanics t o captain are substantially higher than promotion rates of Caucasians to captain. Despite their successes, women and minority Naval officers turnover at high rates and are still grossly under represented in the officer corps.