Da. Badoe et Gn. Steuart, URBAN AND TRAVEL CHANGES IN THE GREATER TORONTO AREA AND THE TRANSFERABILITY OF TRIP-GENERATION MODELS, Transportation planning and technology, 20(4), 1997, pp. 267-290
This paper discusses the important urban and travel changes in the Gre
ater Toronto Area between 1964 and 1986, and reports the findings of a
study into the temporal transferability of home-based trip generation
models, estimated on 1964 data; and applied in prediction on 1986 sur
vey data. Changes in urban structure include: a decline in average hou
sehold size; decentralisation in population and employment; a change i
n household composition, reflected by an increase in the following: nu
mber of working members, household-vehicle ownership, and number of ho
usehold-members licenced to drive; an increase in the average number o
f trips made per person and per household, notwithstanding the decline
in average household size; an increase in car-use and a decline in th
e average vehicle occupancy. Disaggregate measures of transferability
indicate the transferred 1964 home-based trip production models provid
e some useful information on trip-making in 1986. Regional forecasts,
however, show most 1964-models have significant prediction bias, parti
cularly for non-work-trips. Poor transferability of 1964 non-work trip
-production models is not entirely attributable to transfer-bias.