A scheme is proposed for determining when a psychological treatment fo
r a specific problem or disorder may be considered to be established i
n efficacy or to be possibly efficacious. The importance of independen
t replication before a treatment is established in efficacy is emphasi
zed, and a number of factors are elaborated that should be weighed in
evaluating whether studies supporting a treatment's efficacy are sound
. It is suggested that, in evaluating the benefits of a given treatmen
t, the greatest weight should be given to efficacy trials but that the
se trials should be followed by research on effectiveness in clinical
settings and with various populations and by cost-effectiveness resear
ch.