PROJECTION OF AIDS AND HIV INCIDENCE AMONG CHILDREN BORN INFECTED WITH HIV

By 31 December 1995, 6285 children with perinatally acquired immunodef iciency syndrome (AIDS) had been reported to the Centers for Disease C ontrol and Prevention (CDC) by the state and local health departments of all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. territories. We present here the statistical methods used to estimate the number of infants born with HIV and to predict the number of diagn oses of perinatally acquired AIDS among children to 1997. We estimate that there were 13,900 children who had perinatally acquired HIV infec tion by the end of 1995 and who will eventually be reported with AIDS. If 85 per cent of all diagnoses are reported, this represents a total of more than 16,300 diagnoses. Of these, 6600 had developed AIDS by t he end of 1995 and will eventually be reported to CDC. We project that , during 1996 and 1997, another 1500 HIV-infected children will be bor n. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.