B. Finkenstadt et B. Grenfell, EMPIRICAL DETERMINANTS OF MEASLES METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS IN ENGLAND AND WALES, Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological Sciences, 265(1392), 1998, pp. 211-220
A key issue in metapopulation dynamics is the relative impact of inter
nal patch dynamics and coupling between patches. This problem can be a
ddressed by analysing large spatiotemporal data sets, recording the lo
cal and global dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we analyse
the dynamics of measles metapopulations in a large spatiotemporal case
notification data set, collected during the pre-vaccination era in En
gland and Wales. Specifically, we use generalized linear statistical m
odels to quantify the relative importance of local influences (birth r
ate and population size) and regional coupling on local epidemic dynam
ics. Apart from the proportional effect of local population size on ca
se totals, the models indicate patterns of local and regional dynamic
influences which depend on the current state of epidemics. Birth rate
and geographic coupling are not associated with the size of major epid
emics. By contrast, minor epidemics-and especially the incidence of lo
cal extinction of infection-are influenced both by birth rate and geog
raphical coupling. Birth rate at a lag of four years provides the best
fit, reflecting the delayed recruitment of susceptibles to school coh
orts. A hierarchical index of spatial coupling to large centres provid
es the best spatial model. The model also indicates that minor epidemi
cs and extinction patterns are more strongly influenced by this region
al effect than the local impact of birth rate.