POTENTIAL FOR PREVENTION OF PREMATURE DEATH AND DISEASE IN NEW-ZEALAND

Aim. To assess the potential for preventing major causes of premature death, disease and injury in New Zealand. Methods, Population attribut able risks for major modifiable risk factors for important causes of d eath and disease in New Zealand were calculated using available nation al and international data on the relative risk of disease and the prev alence of risk factors in the relevant New Zealand population. Attaina ble changes in risk factor prevalences were used to model population a ttributable risks over the next five years. These estimates were then used to estimate potential reductions in absolute numbers of deaths fr om major diseases. Results, High population attributable risks were fo und for several disease/risk factor combinations: smoking and lung can cer (81% in Maori), smoking and coronary heart disease (44% in Maori), smoking and sudden infant death syndrome (49% in Maori); raised serum cholesterol and coronary heart disease (58%); physical inactivity and coronary heart disease (35%), physical inactivity and diabetes (30%), physical inactivity and colorectal cancer (33%), physical inactivity and fractured neck of femur (65%); obesity and hypertension (66%), obe sity and diabetes (46%); lack of fruits and vegetables and stomach can cer (46%), and colorectal cancer (34%). The estimated, readily attaina ble reduction in absolute numbers of annual deaths due to decrease in risk factor prevalence was greatest for smoking (457 deaths), followed by hypertension (326), physical inactivity (303) and raised serum cho lesterol (142). Conclusion. There is significant scope for reducing mo rtality from major non-communicable diseases although for some disease s such as the cancers, there will be a time lag of many years before t he full benefits are realised. Together, reducing the prevalence of sm oking, hypertension, physical inactivity and raised serum cholesterol would result in 1228 fewer deaths per year.