USING DYNAMIC MODELING TO SCOPE ENVIRONMENTAL-PROBLEMS AND BUILD CONSENSUS

This paper assesses the changing role of dynamic modeling for understa nding and managing complex ecological economic systems. it discusses n ew modeling tools for problem scoping and consensus building among a b road range of stakeholders and describes four case studies in which dy namic modeling has been used to collect and organize data, synthesize knowledge, and build consensus about the management of complex systems . The case studies range from industrial systems (mining, smelting, an d refining of iron and steel in the United Stales) to ecosystems (Loui siana coastal wetlands, and Fynbos ecosystems in South Africa) to link ed ecological economic systems (Maryland's Patuxent River basin in the United States). They illustrate uses of dynamic modeling to include s takeholders in ail stages of consensus building, ranging from initial problem scoping to model development. The resultant models are the fir st stage in a three-stage modeling process that includes research and management models as the later stages.