APPLYING SIMPLE DYNAMIC MODELING FOR DECISION-SUPPORT IN PLANNING REGIONAL HEALTH-CARE

In contrast to more simple methods, our dynamic model takes advantage of two assumptions that were checked with the high quality data from t he collective nursing homes of the health care region of The Hague. Fi rst, the indication period, time spent in the nursing home added to th e time spent waiting, is constant. Second, the number of people that f ail to be admitted (renege) changes proportionally to the time they sp end on the waiting list. As a consequence, the model can be dynamic in order to provide estimates of how long it takes for the waiting list and the average waiting time to stabilise after a sudden change in imp ortant parameters. This description of dynamic behaviour, together wit h projections of average waiting time and the length of the waiting li st, provides a powerful aid for examining the consequences of differen t scenarios and discussing them in advance. Data from the health care region of The Hague are presented and the consequences of two scenario s are calculated. Suggestions are made for applying a similar techniqu e to other types of long-cycle waiting lists in regional health care. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.