RISK STRATEGY UNDER TASK COMPLEXITY - A MULTIVARIATE-ANALYSIS OF BEHAVIOR IN A NATURALISTIC SETTING

This study complements the existing literature on decision-making proc esses and outcomes in complex settings by exploring the impact of diff erent types of complexity on risk strategies in a naturalistic setting . The study analyses a large sample of decisions made by individuals i n UK offcourse betting markets, a fertile environment for observing bo th a variety of risk strategies and a range of task complexities. Spec ifically, the investigation focuses on the comparative impacts of comp lexity defined in terms, respectively, of alternatives and attributes. The results suggest that the risk strategy employed is affected by ta sk complexity. Complexity does not affect the size of risk accepted bu t alternative-and attribute-based complexity together influence the pr opensity to accept greater degrees of risk. In addition, the effect of attribute-based complexity on risk taking appears to be modified by t he use of risk-hedging strategies. The results are observed to corrobo rate some earlier work on decision process and outcome; where differen ces with earlier findings are identified, some possible explanations a re offered. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.