INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL MODELS - SIMULATION OF SOCIOCULTURAL CONSTRAINTS ON ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS

We suggest that general systems theory provides a common philosophical basis for dialog between ecological and social scientists interested in studying the reciprocal interactions of humans and their environmen t. We (1) provide a synopsis of the 'systems approach' as viewed from the biological and social sciences, respectively; (2) develop a concep tual framework for the explicit linking of ecological and social varia bles, and (3) draw upon game theoretic results of the Prisoner's Dilem ma to represent human decision-making quantitatively in a model that s imulates the tragedy of the commons. The model consists of 5 submodels that represent the 'observers world' and each of 4 'participant's wor lds.' The observer's-world represents the decision processes, either O ptimize or Tit-for-Tat, by which each of 2 users decides to add or rem ove animals. The 4 perceived worlds represent hypothetical situations in which (1) persons A and B both add an animal; (2) A adds and B does not; (3) B adds and A does not, and (4) neither A nor B add an animal . Simulation results indicate that net worth of the community and of e ach person individually under Tit-for-Tat is more than double the net worth attained under Optimize. Replacement of the static payoff matrix assumed in game theory with a dynamic quantitative model illustrates how 'norm-based' approaches to ecosystem management can outperform opt imizing approaches based on predicted outcomes. Although 'soft systems ' techniques may better help decision-makers reach norm-based agreemen ts on ecosystem management, quantitative models have more explanatory value, and if developed sufficiently such models could incorporate com plex social dimensions that would enhance further their explanatory va lue. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.