RECONSTRUCTING THE SIZE OF THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN POPULATION BY AGE ANDSEX, 1930-1990

We estimate the size of the African American population in five-year a ge groups at census dates from 1930 to 1990 using a three-part strateg y. For cohorts born after 1935, we follow the U.S. Census Bureau in us ing classical demographic analysis. To estimate the size of cohorts bo rn before 1895, we use extinct-generation estimates. For remaining coh orts, we implement an age/period/cohort model of census counts. All ap proaches are applied to a data set in which the age distribution of de aths has been corrected for age misreporting. Results provide strong c onfirmation of the basic validity of Census Bureau estimates of census under-counts for African Americans while extending estimates to new c ohorts and periods. Our estimates are less consistent with an historic al series prepared by Coale and Rives (1973).