PREDICTORS OF RELAPSE AND REHOSPITALIZATION IN SCHIZOPHRENIA AND SCHIZOAFFECTIVE DISORDER

In a German multicenter treatment study, 354 patients with schizophren ia and schizoaffective disorder were followed for 2 years. The data co llected were taken as a basis for the present predictor study. For the first time, the technique of classification and regression tree (CART ) analysis has been employed for this purpose. CART yielded informativ e data and appeared to be a useful instrument in predictor research. O n the outcome variables ''relapse'' and ''rehospitalization,'' signifi cant predictor variables were found in several areas: neuroleptic trea tment, onset and previous course (precipitating factors, first manifes tation, hospitalization in the preceding year, suicide attempts), psyc hopathology (residual type, schizoaffective disorder), social adjustme nt (marital status, employment, intensity of life, Phillips score), pr evious life experiences (traumatic experiences and psychiatric or deve lopmental disturbances in childhood), and biology (gender, age). Our i nvestigation confirmed the generally prevalent views regarding the val ue of neuroleptic treatment, the multifactorial etiology, and the vuln erability stress model of schizophrenia.