REBELLION, VIOLENCE AND REVOLUTION - A RATIONAL CHOICE PERSPECTIVE

There are many rebellions, fewer successful rebellions, and extremely few social revolutions. First, the relative frequencies of elite and m ass rebellions are investigated. Because a rational choice approach fi nds it easier to explain elite rebellions and a deprivation approach s eems tailored to the explanation of mass rebellions, the relative freq uencies of these two types of rebellion favor rational choice. Second, the small number of mass rebellions is related to military issues, su ch as loyalty and defeat in war. Although military defeat in war is ne ither close to a necessary, nor to a sufficient condition of successfu l rebellion, it still might multiply its likelihood. Third, it is argu ed that the link between international rivalries and great revolutions via ruler discouragement and rebel encouragement is compatible with a rational choice approach. Because it is obviously so important in rev olutions, nationalist and religious zealotry needs to be integrated in to rational choice approaches to rebellion and revolution.