MODELING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF SUBSISTENCE FARMING AND HUNTING IN THEITURI FOREST OF ZAIRE

We used empirical data to simulate the impacts, over the next 40 years , of subsistence-level agricultural clearing and bushmeat consumption on forest resources within the recently established Okapi Wildlife Res erve in northeastern Zaire. Satellite imagery, human population census data, and field measurements were used to calculate Present and proje cted impacts of agricultural clearing on forest cove: Data on per capi ta meat consumption and the species captured by hunters were combined with relevant ecological data to estimate ratios of consumption to pro duction and to assess the sustainability of hunting. Even with project ed population growth of nearly 300% among local communities over 40 ye ars, sufficient secondary forest is available that agricultural cleari ng will have minimal effect on mature forest throughout most of the re serve. Impacts on the reserve's fauna will be more dramatic particular ly within 15 km of villages where most hunting currently occurs Subsis tence exploitation of forest antelopes may be sustainable in much of t he reserve (especially if high estimates of game production are used), but as the human Population continues to increase duikers will likely be over-hunted. Primate populations do not appear to be threatened In the near future in those areas where bow hunters exploit monkeys, but an increase in this specialized activity in other legions of the rese rve and growing human populations could change this. Although addition al surveys of commonly hunted species throughout the Okapi wildlife Re serve are essential to enhancing the precision of the simulation, our results suggest that mitigation efforts should he designed and impleme nted note if the long-term effects of domestic bushmeat consumption ar e to be addressed.