Jk. Angell, STRATOSPHERIC WARMING DUE TO AGUNG, EL CHICHON, AND PINATUBO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 102(D8), 1997, pp. 9479-9485
Radiosonde data are used to estimate the impact on stratospheric tempe
rature of Agung, El Chichon, and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions, taking i
nto account the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). This is done by compa
ring the temperature variations following the three eruptions with the
average quasi-biennial variation in temperature obtained by applying
the superposed epoch method to the 13 QBO cycles (centered on Singapor
e 50 mbar east wind maxima) between 1958 and 1996 which do not include
these three eruptions. Confidence estimates are based on the 2-standa
rd deviation value of the 13 comparisons. Shown are estimates of the v
olcanic impact and approximate 95% confidence intervals in 300-100 and
100-50 mbar layers of polar, temperate, subtropical, and equatorial z
ones (and the globe as a whole), as well as in north subtropical and e
quatorial zones at pressure surfaces of 50, 30, 20, and 10 mbar. Based
on this procedure, and ignoring other possible influences on stratosp
heric temperature, all three eruptions warmed the tropical low stratos
phere by nearly 2 degrees C, with the largest warming 3 degrees C at 5
0 mbar in the equatorial zone following Agung and Pinatubo. Above 50 m
bar, the volcanic warming usually decreases with height in the tropics
, an exception being the 2 degrees C warming of the 10 mbar surface in
the north subtropics following El Chichon. While the volcanic warming
is most frequently a maximum 2 seasons after the eruption, the warmin
g duration can be 2 years. In the polar zones there is evidence of coo
ling of stratospheric 300-100 and 100-50 mbar layers following the eru
ptions. Comparisons are made with other volcanic warming estimates.