G. Parmigiani et al., DETERMINING CARRIER PROBABILITIES FOR BREAST CANCER-SUSCEPTIBILITY GENES BRCA1 AND BRCA2, American journal of human genetics, 62(1), 1998, pp. 145-158
Breast cancer-susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 have recently been
identified on the human genome. Women who carry a mutation of one of t
hese genes have a greatly increased chance of developing breast and ov
arian cancer, and they usually develop the disease at a much younger a
ge, compared with normal individuals. Women can be tested to see wheth
er they are carriers. A woman who undergoes genetic counseling before
testing can be told the probabilities that she is a carrier, given her
family history. In this paper we develop a model for evaluating the p
robabilities that a woman is a carrier of a mutation of BRCA1 and BRCA
2, on the basis of her family history of breast and ovarian cancer in
first- and second-degree relatives. Of special importance are the rela
tionships of the family members with cancer, the ages at onset of the
diseases, and the ages of family members who do not have the diseases.
This information can be elicited during genetic counseling and prior
to genetic testing. The carrier probabilities are obtained from Bayes'
s rule, by use of family history as the evidence and by use of the mut
ation prevalences as the prior distribution, In addressing an individu
al's carrier probabilities, we incorporate uncertainty about some of t
he key inputs of the model, such as the age-specific incidence of dise
ases and the overall prevalence of mutations. There is some evidence t
hat other, undiscovered genes may be important in explaining familial
breast cancer. Users of the current version of the model should be awa
re of this limitation. The methodology that we describe can be extende
d to more than two genes, should data become available about other gen
es.