A COMPARISON OF TIMBER MARKET-MODELS - STATIC SIMULATION AND OPTIMAL-CONTROL APPROACHES

In this paper, we compare and contrast two types of timber models that have been used to analyze the market impacts of policy proposals or e xogenous forces that affect timber markets. The framework and theory f or static simulation and optimal control models are presented and disc ussed, We then compare single region, empirical versions of the models across six scenarios of exogenous economic shocks. The models are fou nd to predict different outcomes for timber market behavior when deman d changes, or when young timber is affected by a supply shock. Similar outcomes between the models are obtained when older timber stocks are affected by shocks, or when the exogenous forces impact timber market s gradually over time.