RATIONAL CHOICE AND THE DYNAMICS OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL-ACTION - EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE MODELS WITH PANEL-DATA

Causal inference in research testing rational choice models of unconve ntional political behavior has been hampered by the inability to use p erceptions of the costs and benefits of participation at a given time to predict behavior that necessarily occurred in the past and by ambig uities associated with analyzing behavioral intentions instead of actu al participation. Using panel data collected on a national sample in W est Germany between 1987 and 1989, we show that variables from a ''col lective interest'' model measured in 1987-individuals' dissatisfaction with the provision of collective goods, beliefs that group actions ca n be successful, and beliefs in the importance of their own participat ion-predict subsequent participation in collective protest activities. Variables corresponding to the private ''selective incentives'' assoc iated with protest are found to be less relevant. Furthermore, we find that engaging in protest changes many of the perceptions that influen ce future participation. We discuss the implications for theories of p olitical mobilization.