PRODUCTION AND UTILIZATION OF MILK - WORL D MARKET PROJECTIONS

World milk production is expanding. Sharp increases of production are expected in Australia, New Zealand, USA, Asia and Latin-America. The e xpansion will be limited by rising feed prices and feed input. In most European countries, however milk production will be more or less stab le. The future development in milk production of the CIS is uncertain. The milk producer prices in many countries will depend more on the wo rld market situation than in the past. In most non-European milk produ cing countries the producer prices will tend to increase. An exeption will be countries where prices are already at higher levels. The reduc tion of stocks and the expected shift of milk production into regions where milk output depends more strongly on weather conditions, will al so lead to higher price variations. World butter production is increas ing in Australia, New Zealand and Argentina. In the industrialised cou ntries, the butter consumption per caput will stabilise. The internati onal trade of butter will decrease compared to 1990. There exists grea t uncertainty concerning the future supply and demand situation in the CIS. Therefore, price forecasts are burdened with additional uncertai nties. The international prices of butter decreased in 1996 and will p robably slightly increase in the next years. The marginal value of mil k fat is usually derived from the butter price. Caused by a strong dem and, the world cheese production will expand further, but the growth r ates will be lower than at the beginning of the nineties. In Australia , New Zealand and in the USA, but also in the European Union and Canad a, cheese production will increase. In most of the regions, demand wil l also grow. Additional increases in demand are expected for Asia, Lat in-America and Eastern Europe. There will arise a need for further imp orts, which will be satisfied especially by New Zealand. The cheese pr ices will tend to increase because of the stable growth in demand. In the longterm, global skimmed milkpowder production and demand will sta gnate, mainly because of lower feed demand in the EU. Production and e xports are expected to increase in Oceanina. In Latin-America and also in Asia, skimmed milkpowder demand will be rising, which will be part ly leading to higher imports. Uncertain is the milkpowder supply of Ea stern Europe and the demand in Mexico. The prices decreased in 1996, b ut are expected to recover and to increase more or less according to t he trend.