IS THE INTEGRATIVE FUNCTION OF THE WELFAR E-STATE DISAPPEARING

Over the long term, the welfare states of Europe can look forward to m oderate economic growth at best. As this growth will be produced by an ever smaller portion of the population, an ever higher share of the n ational wealth will have to be redistributed to the benefit of those o utside the labor force, the alternative being a drop in the standards of social services aimed at the unemployed. At the same time, we will see the autonomy of the nation-state slowly erode: growing subordinati on to global market developments and the shift of economic policy-maki ng powers to the European level act as constraints on national governm ent in those areas of social policy which are to remain in their domai n. These developments are discussed here from a macrosociological pers pective in terms of inclusion and societal integration. Until now the development of welfare states proved to be an evolutionary success, as social policies had complementary effects in the cultural, the politi cal, the economic and the social dimension. There was a convergence be tween the three analytical dimensions of societal integration, i.e. fu nctional interdependence, legal assignments of equal status and the mo rals of reciprocity. For the future, however, one has to expect diverg ent developments in these three dimensions, already indicated by forms of partial desolidarization. Despite the trends of globalization nati onal states remain the focus of international competition and of the o rganization of social interests. Therefore national states will remain the dominant arena of socio-political conflicts as well as the main b asis for securing reciprocity.