EL-NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL, STREAMFLOW AND DROUGHT - LINKS AND POTENTIAL FOR FORECASTING

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomali es throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of the relati onship between ENSO and rainfall, drought and streamflow in Australia. The teleconnection between ENSO and the hydroclimate of Australia is investigated using the empirical method of Ropelewski and Halpert and the potential for forecasting the hydroclimate variables are investiga ted by assessing the lag correlations between rainfall and streamflow and the indicators of ENSO several months earlier. The analyses show t hat dry conditions in Australia tend to be associated with El Nine. Th e link between rainfall and streamflow and ENSO is statistically signi ficant in most parts of Australia, but it is not sufficiently strong t o consistently predict rainfall and streamflow accurately. The telecon nection is stronger in the latter part of the year, and the analyses s uggest that the indicators of ENSO can be used with some success to fo recast spring rainfall in eastern Australia and summer rainfall in nor th-east Australia several months in advance. The ENSO indicators can a lso be used to help forecast spring runoff in south-east Australia and summer runoff in the north-east and east coasts of Australia. Unlike rainfall, the serial correlation in the streamflow data is generally s imilar or higher than the lag streamflow-ENSO correlation, and it must be used together with the ENSO indicators in developing streamflow fo recast models. The seasonal forecasts of rainfall and streamflow are i nvaluable to the management of land and water resources, particularly in Australia, where the streamflow variability is higher than in most parts of the world. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.