PROBABILISTIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS - TOWARD A NEW ERA IN OPERATIONAL FORECASTING

Under the auspices of the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorol ogy, Education and Training, pilot research has been conducted from 19 91 to 1996 on operational methods for producing Probabilistic Quantita tive Precipitation Forecasts (PQPFs) and Probabilistic River Stage For ecasts (PRSFs). The first integrated forecasts were produced using ope rational data and models of the National Weather Service on 19 October 1996. The PQPF was for a 24-h period and the PRSFs were for lead time s of 1, 2, and 3 days. This article discusses these pilot forecasts, t heir interpretation, and their advantages to forecasters and end users with regard to communicating uncertainties and making decisions.