CLIMATE-CHANGE AND FOREST-FIRE POTENTIAL IN RUSSIAN AND CANADIAN BOREAL FORESTS

In this study outputs from four current General Circulation Models (GC Ms) were used to project forest fire danger levels in Canada and Russi a under a warmer climate. Temperature and precipitation anomalies betw een 1 x CO2 and 2 x CO2 runs were combined with baseline observed weat her data for both countries for the 1980-1989 period. Forecast seasona l fire weather severity was similar for the four GCMs, indicating larg e increases in the areal extent of extreme fire danger in both countri es under a 2 x CO2 climate scenario. A monthly analysis, using the Can adian GCM, showed an earlier start to the fire season, and significant increases in the area experiencing high to extreme fire danger in bot h Canada and Russia, particularly during June and July. Climate change as forecast has serious implications for forest fire management in bo th countries. More severe fire weather, coupled with continued economi c constraints and downsizing, mean more fire activity in the future is a virtual certainty. The likely response will be a restructuring of p rotection priorities to support more intensive protection of smaller, high-value areas, and a return to natural fire regimes over larger are as of both Canada and Russia, with resultant significant impacts on th e carbon budget.