IMPACTS OF A GHG-INDUCED CLIMATE-CHANGE ON CROP YIELDS - EFFECTS OF ACCELERATION IN MATURATION, MOISTURE STRESS AND OPTIMAL TEMPERATURE

The present study involves using the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) cli mate change scenario to evaluate the impacts of a CO2-induced climate change on agriculture in Quebec and vicinity. Climate change using the CCC General Circulation Model (GCM) data are fed into a crop model (F AO) so as to gauge the changes in agroclimatic factors such as growing season length and growing degree days, and subsequently potential yie ld changes for a variety of cereal (C-3 and C-4), leguminous, oleagino us, vegetable and special crops, for twelve major agricultural regions in southern Quebec. Our results show that depending upon the agricult ural zone and crop type, yields may increase (ex. corn and sorghum by 20%) or decrease (ex. wheat and soybean by 20 to 30%). Also, these cro p yield changes appear to be related to acceleration in maturation rat es, mainly to change in moisture stress and to shifts in optimal therm al growth conditions. These possible shifts in agricultural production potentials would solicit the formulation of appropriate adaptation st rategies.